Spread: Kings (-1.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (71%) · Magic at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
7
Magic 71%
$3.6K
-$175.42
79¢ → 98.5¢
+25% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Magicavg 74.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.6K | +$398.32 | 55% 541-436 (977) |
65 6512395314597884 | Magicavg 89.8¢ | $722.01 | $789 | +$66.99 | 51% 3187-3102 (6289) |
PA Pan9X | Magicavg 98¢ | $126.42 | $127.07 | +$0.64 | 49% 498-518 (1016) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Magicavg 98¢ | $75.46 | $75.85 | +$0.39 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Kingsavg 22¢ | $443.46 | $30.19 | -$413.27 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
 RN1CTR | Kingsavg 24.1¢ | $245.18 | $15.24 | -$229.95 | 58% 3865-2855 (6720) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Magicavg 66¢ | $9.56 | $11.01 | +$1.45 | 58% 3133-2226 (5359) |
Invested
$2,155.58
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$398.32
Record
55%
541-436 (977)
Invested
$722.01
Value
$789
PnL
+$66.99
Record
51%
3187-3102 (6289)
Invested
$126.42
Value
$127.07
PnL
+$0.64
Record
49%
498-518 (1016)
Invested
$75.46
Value
$75.85
PnL
+$0.39
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
Invested
$443.46
Value
$30.19
PnL
-$413.27
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
RN1CTRInvested
$245.18
Value
$15.24
PnL
-$229.95
Record
58%
3865-2855 (6720)
Invested
$9.56
Value
$11.01
PnL
+$1.45
Record
58%
3133-2226 (5359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.