Spread: Magic (-9.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (67%) · Kings at 53¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Magic48¢Kings52¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$16.96

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 52.5¢

-9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic48%

Kings53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic2 traders

Total Value$879.33

Total Shares1,916

Combined PnL+$183.82

Kings4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,823

Combined PnL-$166.86

Magic — 33%Kings — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Kingsavg 61.2¢	$936.72	$843	-$93.72	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 50.5¢	$456.96	$443.16	-$13.8
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 61.2¢	$479.76	$399.84	-$79.92
FL FlaznorpCTR	Magicavg 36.4¢	$656.07	$836.99	+$180.92	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Kingsavg 61.8¢	$951.44	$762.82	-$188.62	56% 502-393 (895)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Magicavg 53.9¢	$368.3	$341.96	-$26.34	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 53.9¢	$244.31	$253.97	+$9.65
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 62¢	$123.98	$87.99	-$36
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Kingsavg 50¢	$172.8	$183.36	+$10.56	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 50¢	$139.36	$139.36	+$0
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 38¢	$33.44	$44	+$10.56
BI biying88888	Kingsavg 45.4¢	$147.2	$167.04	+$19.84	27% 63-170 (233)
LI LightParadox<$100	Kingsavg 49¢	$66.77	$66.77	+$0	28% 298-765 (1063)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Magicavg 34¢	$39.44	$42.34	+$2.9	48% 959-1032 (1991)
PA Pan9X<$100	Kingsavg 60¢	$33.08	$35	+$1.92	49% 446-472 (918)

RN1ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$936.72

Value

$843

PnL

-$93.72

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Both legs:

Magic$456.9650.5¢-$13.8

Kings$479.7661.2¢-$79.92

FlaznorpCTR

Magic

Invested

$656.07

Value

$836.99

PnL

+$180.92

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Kings

Invested

$951.44

Value

$762.82

PnL

-$188.62

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$368.3

Value

$341.96

PnL

-$26.34

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Magic$244.3153.9¢+$9.65

Kings$123.9862¢-$36

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$172.8

Value

$183.36

PnL

+$10.56

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

Both legs:

Kings$139.3650¢+$0

Magic$33.4438¢+$10.56

biying88888

Kings

Invested

$147.2

Value

$167.04

PnL

+$19.84

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

LightParadox<$100

Kings

Invested

$66.77

Value

$66.77

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$39.44

Value

$42.34

PnL

+$2.9

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Pan9X<$100

Kings

Invested

$33.08

Value

$35

PnL

+$1.92

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kings

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.