Spread: Magic (-8.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (63%) · Kings at 51¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11

Magic50¢Kings50¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$997.33

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 50.5¢

-18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Magic50%

Kings51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings5 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,297

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Magic3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,329

Combined PnL+$66.12

Kings — 63%Magic — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Kingsavg 62.4¢	$4.9K	$3.6K	-$986.79	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
RN1CTR	Magicavg 45.3¢	$469.87	$549.99	+$80.12	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Magicavg 39.3¢	$419.03	$479.99	+$60.96	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 39.3¢	$295.37	$360.91	+$65.54
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 54¢	$123.66	$119.08	-$4.58
65 6512395314597884CTR	Magicavg 39.5¢	$480.39	$456.14	-$24.25	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
HO HomeRunHazard	Kingsavg 59¢	$346.76	$354.27	+$7.51	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Kingsavg 60.3¢	$392.17	$309.2	-$82.97	56% 502-393 (895)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Kingsavg 46.7¢	$139.95	$137.79	-$2.16	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Kingsavg 59¢	$37.76	$38.72	+$0.96	49% 220-228 (448)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Magicavg 39¢	$48.75	$36	+$10.25	49% 446-472 (918)

Flaznorp

Kings

Invested

$4,855.03

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$986.79

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

RN1CTR

Magic

Invested

$469.87

Value

$549.99

PnL

+$80.12

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$419.03

Value

$479.99

PnL

+$60.96

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Magic$295.3739.3¢+$65.54

Kings$123.6654¢-$4.58

6512395314597884CTR

Magic

Invested

$480.39

Value

$456.14

PnL

-$24.25

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

HomeRunHazard

Kings

Invested

$346.76

Value

$354.27

PnL

+$7.51

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Kings

Invested

$392.17

Value

$309.2

PnL

-$82.97

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Kings

Invested

$139.95

Value

$137.79

PnL

-$2.16

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

SnakeBall<$100

Kings

Invested

$37.76

Value

$38.72

PnL

+$0.96

Record

49%

220-228 (448)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$48.75

Value

$36

PnL

+$10.25

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kings

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.