Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Kings (73%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Magic (-14.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (80%) · Magic at 27¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
5
Magic 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$78.76
14.4¢ → 27¢
+87% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | Kingsavg 87¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$113.5 | 55% 541-436 (977) |
| └ Kings leg | Kingsavg 87¢ | $913.5 | $630 | -$283.5 | |
| └ Magic leg | Magicavg 23¢ | $230 | $399.99 | +$170 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Magicavg 13¢ | $130 | $205 | +$75 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Magicavg 39¢ | $14.1 | $14.46 | +$0.36 | 54% 1691-1468 (3159) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Magicavg 26¢ | $7.02 | $10.8 | +$3.78 | 29% 322-773 (1095) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Magicavg 38.3¢ | $3.71 | $3.87 | +$0.16 | 58% 3865-2855 (6720) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100 | Kingsavg 77¢ | $2.44 | $1.9 | -$0.54 | 53% 228-199 (427) |
Invested
$1,143.5
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$113.5
Record
55%
541-436 (977)
Both legs:
Invested
$130
Value
$205
PnL
+$75
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$14.46
PnL
+$0.36
Record
54%
1691-1468 (3159)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$10.8
PnL
+$3.78
Record
29%
322-773 (1095)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$3.71
Value
$3.87
PnL
+$0.16
Record
58%
3865-2855 (6720)
Invested
$2.44
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.54
Record
53%
228-199 (427)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.