Spread: Magic (-12.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (100%) · Kings at 69¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
5
Kings 100%
$19.5K
$3.4K
54¢ → 68.5¢
+27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 69%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTS | Kingsavg 54¢ | $12.0K | $14.6K | +$2.6K | 52% 2583-2418 (5001) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Kingsavg 54¢ | $2.7K | $3.3K | +$572.34 | 26% 129-365 (494) |
FL Flaznorp | Kingsavg 54.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$269.74 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Kingsavg 54¢ | $96.12 | $96.12 | -$0 | 58% 3133-2226 (5359) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Kingsavg 73¢ | $3.03 | $2.24 | -$0.79 | 55% 541-436 (977) |
CUTJALENHURTSInvested
$12,034.76
Value
$14.6K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
52%
2583-2418 (5001)
Invested
$2,687.51
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$572.34
Record
26%
129-365 (494)
Invested
$1,288.04
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$269.74
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
Invested
$96.12
Value
$96.12
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
3133-2226 (5359)
Invested
$3.03
Value
$2.24
PnL
-$0.79
Record
55%
541-436 (977)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.