Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 8 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 44¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 8

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

Total Value

$23.9K

Combined PnL

-$350.87

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 44¢

-16% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 17 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares25,365

Combined PnL+$309.81

Over9 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares22,370

Combined PnL-$660.67

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 53.1¢	$10.8K	$11.1K	+$257.7	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Overavg 48¢	$9.6K	$9.0K	-$600	53% 668-585 (1253)
KA KasonWongCTR	Underavg 49.2¢	$984.13	$930	-$54.13	52% 26-24 (50)
nigiri99	Overavg 50.9¢	$575.34	$604.55	+$29.21	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 48¢	$477.35	$586.37	+$109.02	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 50.1¢	$466.79	$503.57	+$36.79	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
73 739633786CTR	Underavg 50¢	$502.5	$467.33	-$35.17	44% 414-535 (949)
NM NM-P	Overavg 53¢	$190.89	$163.31	-$27.58	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-P	Overavg 53¢	$185.5	$157.5	-$28	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 52¢	$156.52	$135.45	-$21.07	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48.7¢	$348.8	$96.22	+$7.16	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$94.14	$74.25	-$19.89	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
IA ianf2026CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$42.59	$50.93	+$8.33	50% 122-123 (245)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 51.4¢	$56.55	$49.5	-$7.05	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 49¢	$36.26	$33.3	-$2.96	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 51¢	$25.5	$22.5	-$3	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.33	-$0.23	50% 26504-26107 (52611)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$10,799.29

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$257.7

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Over

Invested

$9,599.98

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$600

Record

53%

668-585 (1253)

KasonWongCTR

Under

Invested

$984.13

Value

$930

PnL

-$54.13

Record

52%

26-24 (50)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$575.34

Value

$604.55

PnL

+$29.21

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$477.35

Value

$586.37

PnL

+$109.02

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$466.79

Value

$503.57

PnL

+$36.79

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

739633786CTR

Under

Invested

$502.5

Value

$467.33

PnL

-$35.17

Record

44%

414-535 (949)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$190.89

Value

$163.31

PnL

-$27.58

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$185.5

Value

$157.5

PnL

-$28

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$156.52

Value

$135.45

PnL

-$21.07

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$348.8

Value

$96.22

PnL

+$7.16

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$94.14

Value

$74.25

PnL

-$19.89

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

ianf2026CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.59

Value

$50.93

PnL

+$8.33

Record

50%

122-123 (245)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$56.55

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$7.05

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$36.26

Value

$33.3

PnL

-$2.96

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$25.5

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$3

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 17 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.