Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 248.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$25.23

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 94.2¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,391

Combined PnL-$32.24

Over2 traders

Total Value$20.25

Total Shares405

Combined PnL+$7.01

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 96.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$24.12	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
RN1	Underavg 83.3¢	$464.86	$478.44	+$19.34	57% 4253-3271 (7524)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 93.2¢	$526.58	$401.08	+$15.71	54% 930-784 (1714)
AN Anon455	Underavg 88¢	$261.95	$216.96	-$44.99	47% 219-247 (466)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 95¢	$76.96	$85.39	+$8.43	50% 3375-3365 (6740)
└ Over leg	Overavg 3.3¢	$36.11	$44.11	+$8
└ Under leg	Underavg 95¢	$40.85	$41.28	+$0.43
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 97¢	$19.4	$18.9	-$0.5	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 80.3¢	$12.42	$14.85	+$2.43	54% 789-676 (1465)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$8.1	$14.85	+$6.75	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 97¢	$11.64	$11.52	-$0.12	41% 124-177 (301)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 3.8¢	$5.13	$5.4	+$0.26	47% 847-942 (1789)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,226.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$24.12

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

RN1

Under

Invested

$464.86

Value

$478.44

PnL

+$19.34

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$526.58

Value

$401.08

PnL

+$15.71

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$261.95

Value

$216.96

PnL

-$44.99

Record

47%

219-247 (466)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$76.96

Value

$85.39

PnL

+$8.43

Record

50%

3375-3365 (6740)

Both legs:

Invested

$19.4

Value

$18.9

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$12.42

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$2.43

Record

54%

789-676 (1465)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.1

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$6.75

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$11.64

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$0.12

Record

41%

124-177 (301)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$0.26

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.4%

94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.