Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 244.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 91¢ · $201 held · ended Nov 12

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$201.14

Combined PnL

-$1.53

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 90.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$185.6

Total Shares203

Combined PnL-$3.24

Over4 traders

Total Value$15.54

Total Shares184

Combined PnL+$1.71

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 96¢	$132.24	$125.35	-$6.89	54% 930-784 (1714)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 83¢	$37.39	$41.04	+$3.65	47% 847-942 (1789)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 96¢	$19.2	$19.2	+$0	51% 267-256 (523)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 4.7¢	$4.39	$8.42	+$4.04	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$7.65	$4.05	-$3.6	57% 4253-3271 (7524)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$1	$2.25	+$1.25	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$0.8	$0.82	+$0.02	12% 34-240 (274)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$132.24

Value

$125.35

PnL

-$6.89

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$37.39

Value

$41.04

PnL

+$3.65

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$19.2

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

267-256 (523)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.39

Value

$8.42

PnL

+$4.04

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.65

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$3.6

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.82

PnL

+$0.02

Record

12%

34-240 (274)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.