Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 242.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$65.7

Smart Money Entry

81.9¢ → 92¢

+12% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,279

Combined PnL+$134.76

Over2 traders

Total Value$36

Total Shares379

Combined PnL-$69.06

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 81.2¢	$838.29	$940.03	+$101.74	57% 4253-3271 (7524)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 84.6¢	$71.12	$76.12	+$5	47% 847-942 (1789)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 87¢	$96.12	$58.48	-$30.53	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 87¢	$46.69	$50.1	+$3.41	50% 3375-3365 (6740)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 74¢	$265.94	$33.4	+$54.46	54% 930-784 (1714)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$92.07	$26.51	-$65.57	47% 219-247 (466)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 83.6¢	$18	$19.09	+$1.09	54% 789-676 (1465)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$13	$9.5	-$3.5	63% 310-179 (489)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 97¢	$9.7	$9.1	-$0.6	41% 124-177 (301)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 90¢	$7.2	$7.24	+$0.04	36% 446-789 (1235)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 87¢	$4.35	$4.5	+$0.15	50% 1068-1081 (2149)

RN1

Under

Invested

$838.29

Value

$940.03

PnL

+$101.74

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$71.12

Value

$76.12

PnL

+$5

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$96.12

Value

$58.48

PnL

-$30.53

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$46.69

Value

$50.1

PnL

+$3.41

Record

50%

3375-3365 (6740)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$265.94

Value

$33.4

PnL

+$54.46

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$92.07

Value

$26.51

PnL

-$65.57

Record

47%

219-247 (466)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$18

Value

$19.09

PnL

+$1.09

Record

54%

789-676 (1465)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

63%

310-179 (489)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$9.7

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$0.6

Record

41%

124-177 (301)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.24

PnL

+$0.04

Record

36%

446-789 (1235)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.