Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 90¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$285.11

Smart Money Entry

71.5¢ → 90¢

+26% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,983

Combined PnL+$510.69

Over3 traders

Total Value$161.37

Total Shares1,559

Combined PnL-$225.58

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 71.9¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$378.32	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1	Underavg 76¢	$450.01	$391.02	-$47.11	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
AN Anon455	Underavg 71.8¢	$356.06	$388.34	+$32.28	46% 200-233 (433)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 69.5¢	$296.08	$385.08	+$89.01	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 60¢	$111.39	$155.02	+$43.63	36% 410-719 (1129)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 14¢	$119.71	$115.43	-$4.28	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 61¢	$147.97	$91.21	+$38.8	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61¢	$47.58	$70.59	+$19.74
└ Over leg	Overavg 13¢	$28.2	$20.62	+$19.06
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	Overavg 38¢	$267.14	$45.7	-$221.45	61% 36-23 (59)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 62.4¢	$39.1	$14.6	+$15.51	49% 786-829 (1615)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 89.6¢	$11.88	$11.74	-$0.14	55% 729-596 (1325)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 89.2¢	$5.35	$4.56	-$0.79	52% 235-217 (452)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$0.1	$0.24	+$0.14	65% 169-92 (261)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,866.98

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$378.32

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1

Under

Invested

$450.01

Value

$391.02

PnL

-$47.11

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$356.06

Value

$388.34

PnL

+$32.28

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$296.08

Value

$385.08

PnL

+$89.01

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$111.39

Value

$155.02

PnL

+$43.63

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$119.71

Value

$115.43

PnL

-$4.28

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$147.97

Value

$91.21

PnL

+$38.8

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Both legs:

Under$47.5861¢+$19.74

Over$28.213¢+$19.06

Zzzz87CTR

Over

Invested

$267.14

Value

$45.7

PnL

-$221.45

Record

61%

36-23 (59)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$39.1

Value

$14.6

PnL

+$15.51

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$11.88

Value

$11.74

PnL

-$0.14

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$5.35

Value

$4.56

PnL

-$0.79

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.14

Record

65%

169-92 (261)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.