Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over15¢Under85¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$2.38

Smart Money Entry

88.4¢ → 85¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over15%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,078

Combined PnL-$19.84

Over3 traders

Total Value$98.42

Total Shares577

Combined PnL+$22.22

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 91¢	$609.89	$569.68	-$40.21	50% 3375-3365 (6740)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 88.9¢	$564.91	$530.94	+$24.39	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
nigiri99	Underavg 80¢	$250.35	$278.57	+$28.22	51% 267-256 (523)
RN1	Underavg 90.9¢	$254.17	$233.5	-$20.67	57% 4253-3271 (7524)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 86.8¢	$136.12	$133.36	-$2.76	47% 847-942 (1789)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 91¢	$128.72	$119.92	-$8.81	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 11.1¢	$75.14	$96.15	+$21.01	54% 930-784 (1714)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 85¢	$5.9	$5.9	+$0	54% 789-676 (1465)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$27.56	$1.92	+$1.36	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$0.51	$0.36	-$0.14	47% 219-247 (466)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$609.89

Value

$569.68

PnL

-$40.21

Record

50%

3375-3365 (6740)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$564.91

Value

$530.94

PnL

+$24.39

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$250.35

Value

$278.57

PnL

+$28.22

Record

51%

267-256 (523)

RN1

Under

Invested

$254.17

Value

$233.5

PnL

-$20.67

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$136.12

Value

$133.36

PnL

-$2.76

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$128.72

Value

$119.92

PnL

-$8.81

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$75.14

Value

$96.15

PnL

+$21.01

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

789-676 (1465)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.56

Value

$1.92

PnL

+$1.36

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$0.14

Record

47%

219-247 (466)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.