Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (41%) · Under at 61¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 41%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$248.78

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 60.5¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 17 top traders (41%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,291

Combined PnL+$285.81

Over10 traders

Total Value$691.57

Total Shares2,459

Combined PnL-$37.03

Under — 41%Over — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 64.3¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	+$176.52	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$40
└ Over leg	Overavg 27¢	$363.1	$510.11	+$216.52
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 46¢	$833.83	$1.1K	+$276.27	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 61.2¢	$1.1K	$917.18	-$81.66	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.2¢	$571.51	$705.26	+$133.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.9¢	$423.09	$211.92	-$215.41
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 71.6¢	$955.06	$849.09	-$105.97	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 32.6¢	$362.51	$344.89	-$17.62	46% 200-233 (433)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 19.5¢	$270.37	$215.32	+$104.15	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
└ Over leg	Overavg 19.5¢	$82.05	$113.67	+$50.54
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.9¢	$76.4	$101.65	+$53.61
alpheclabs2CTR	Overavg 17.6¢	$130.72	$181.88	+$51.16	44% 143-184 (327)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 50¢	$119.51	$156.74	+$75.51	49% 786-829 (1615)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 50¢	$66.28	$108.04	+$41.76	31% 441-967 (1408)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 19.5¢	$48.63	$67.87	+$19.24	36% 410-719 (1129)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$85.84	$37.66	-$48.17	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 79¢	$27.92	$27.75	-$0.17	40% 438-657 (1095)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 39.8¢	$923	$16.72	-$46.82	55% 843-701 (1544)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 20.7¢	$17.35	$15.6	+$15.75	49% 973-998 (1971)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$24.99	$10.54	-$14.45	39% 233-367 (600)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 18.5¢	$11.61	$9.44	+$3.36	55% 729-596 (1325)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$4.18	$5.39	+$1.21	45% 304-377 (681)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 81¢	$6.48	$4.24	-$2.24	38% 99-159 (258)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$3.15	+$0.65	31% 438-969 (1407)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$2.26	$1.57	-$0.68	53% 305-275 (580)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,729.79

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$176.52

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Under$1,096.264.3¢-$40

Over$363.127¢+$216.52

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$833.83

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$276.27

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,102.95

Value

$917.18

PnL

-$81.66

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Under$571.5161.2¢+$133.75

Over$423.0948.9¢-$215.41

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$955.06

Value

$849.09

PnL

-$105.97

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$362.51

Value

$344.89

PnL

-$17.62

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$270.37

Value

$215.32

PnL

+$104.15

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Both legs:

Over$82.0519.5¢+$50.54

Under$76.454.9¢+$53.61

alpheclabs2CTR

Over

Invested

$130.72

Value

$181.88

PnL

+$51.16

Record

44%

143-184 (327)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$119.51

Value

$156.74

PnL

+$75.51

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$66.28

Value

$108.04

PnL

+$41.76

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.63

Value

$67.87

PnL

+$19.24

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$85.84

Value

$37.66

PnL

-$48.17

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$27.92

Value

$27.75

PnL

-$0.17

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$923

Value

$16.72

PnL

-$46.82

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.35

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$15.75

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.99

Value

$10.54

PnL

-$14.45

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.61

Value

$9.44

PnL

+$3.36

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.18

Value

$5.39

PnL

+$1.21

Record

45%

304-377 (681)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$6.48

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$2.24

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.65

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.26

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$0.68

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 17 top traders (41%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.