Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 63¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$150.18

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 62.5¢

+20% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares5,598

Combined PnL+$504.8

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,212

Combined PnL-$354.62

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2	Underavg 50¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$253.28	44% 143-184 (327)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 46.4¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$153.26	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 49.1¢	$543.63	$525.16	-$18.47	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.1¢	$440.33	$385.51	-$54.82
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.2¢	$103.3	$139.65	+$36.35
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 50.9¢	$332.54	$373.63	+$41.08	36% 410-719 (1129)
AN Anon455	Underavg 65.9¢	$386.56	$372.76	-$13.8	46% 200-233 (433)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 57¢	$802.01	$149.32	+$86.1	55% 843-701 (1544)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 51.7¢	$209.83	$98.2	+$87.97	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
SU suntori	Underavg 59¢	$100.94	$95.56	-$5.38	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 50¢	$173.11	$88.29	-$84.82	39% 233-367 (600)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 47.4¢	$79.08	$80.04	+$47.11	49% 786-829 (1615)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 58¢	$141.96	$62.41	-$79.55	53% 305-275 (580)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$80.79	$33.89	-$36.15	49% 973-998 (1971)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 46.1¢	$14.27	$17.65	+$3.38	55% 729-596 (1325)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 37¢	$7.78	$11.5	+$3.71	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$4.47	$3.62	-$0.84	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
FO forecastication4<$100	Underavg 50¢	$6.14	$1.48	+$1.34	21% 63-235 (298)

alpheclabs2

Under

Invested

$1,809.15

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$253.28

Record

44%

143-184 (327)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$2,076.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$153.26

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$543.63

Value

$525.16

PnL

-$18.47

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Over$440.3349.1¢-$54.82

Under$103.342.2¢+$36.35

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$332.54

Value

$373.63

PnL

+$41.08

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$386.56

Value

$372.76

PnL

-$13.8

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$802.01

Value

$149.32

PnL

+$86.1

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$209.83

Value

$98.2

PnL

+$87.97

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

suntori

Under

Invested

$100.94

Value

$95.56

PnL

-$5.38

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$173.11

Value

$88.29

PnL

-$84.82

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$79.08

Value

$80.04

PnL

+$47.11

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$141.96

Value

$62.41

PnL

-$79.55

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80.79

Value

$33.89

PnL

-$36.15

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$14.27

Value

$17.65

PnL

+$3.38

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$7.78

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$3.71

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.47

Value

$3.62

PnL

-$0.84

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

forecastication4<$100

Under

Invested

$6.14

Value

$1.48

PnL

+$1.34

Record

21%

63-235 (298)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.