Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (71%). 11 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 222.5

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 29¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$32.26

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 29¢

-39% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,682

Combined PnL-$238.05

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,945

Combined PnL+$270.31

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 66.3¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$218.53	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Over leg	Overavg 66.3¢	$815.04	$786.17	-$28.86
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.3¢	$665.94	$476.27	-$189.67
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 48.4¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$240.17	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 50.1¢	$827.42	$730.52	-$96.9	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.1¢	$484.56	$386.77	-$97.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 59.8¢	$342.86	$343.76	+$0.9
AN Anon455	Overavg 46.6¢	$362.87	$432.14	+$69.27	46% 200-233 (433)
TA takeormake	Overavg 48¢	$304.8	$307.97	+$3.17	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 62¢	$195.92	$224.36	+$28.44	38% 99-159 (258)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Underavg 50¢	$175	$196	+$21	63% 291-169 (460)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 64¢	$141.31	$122.73	-$18.58	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
└ Over leg	Overavg 64¢	$90.88	$90.88	+$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 57¢	$50.43	$31.85	-$18.58
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$72.16	$96.69	+$24.53	31% 441-967 (1408)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 51.2¢	$672.14	$71.03	+$151.48	55% 843-701 (1544)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$86	$58	-$28	31% 444-971 (1415)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 42.3¢	$37.25	$54.65	+$17.41	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 49.6¢	$52.44	$35.85	-$9.08	49% 973-998 (1971)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 40.8¢	$76.28	$22.32	-$3.02	49% 786-829 (1615)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$17.17	$17.02	-$0.15	40% 438-657 (1095)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$15.71	$14.64	-$1.07	52% 597-541 (1138)
MI mishipolis<$100	Overavg 63¢	$10.7	$10	-$0.7	41% 71-102 (173)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$7.98	$7.6	-$0.38	32% 444-952 (1396)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 43.9¢	$7.51	$7.01	-$0.5	55% 729-596 (1325)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 57.4¢	$4.76	$5.89	+$1.13	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.95	+$0.1	36% 410-719 (1129)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$3.62	$2.41	-$1.21	57% 3276-2473 (5749)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,480.98

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$218.53

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Over$815.0466.3¢-$28.86

Under$665.9450.3¢-$189.67

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,311.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$240.17

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$827.42

Value

$730.52

PnL

-$96.9

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Under$484.5650.1¢-$97.79

Over$342.8659.8¢+$0.9

Anon455

Over

Invested

$362.87

Value

$432.14

PnL

+$69.27

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$304.8

Value

$307.97

PnL

+$3.17

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$195.92

Value

$224.36

PnL

+$28.44

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

suitcase6628CTR

Under

Invested

$175

Value

$196

PnL

+$21

Record

63%

291-169 (460)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$141.31

Value

$122.73

PnL

-$18.58

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Both legs:

Over$90.8864¢+$0

Under$50.4357¢-$18.58

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72.16

Value

$96.69

PnL

+$24.53

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$672.14

Value

$71.03

PnL

+$151.48

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$86

Value

$58

PnL

-$28

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$37.25

Value

$54.65

PnL

+$17.41

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.44

Value

$35.85

PnL

-$9.08

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$76.28

Value

$22.32

PnL

-$3.02

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.17

Value

$17.02

PnL

-$0.15

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.71

Value

$14.64

PnL

-$1.07

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

mishipolis<$100

Over

Invested

$10.7

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.7

Record

41%

71-102 (173)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.98

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$0.38

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.51

Value

$7.01

PnL

-$0.5

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.89

PnL

+$1.13

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.1

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.62

Value

$2.41

PnL

-$1.21

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.