Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 218.5

12 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 83¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$298.92

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 82.5¢

+21% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 22 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over12 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,551

Combined PnL+$300.73

Under10 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,956

Combined PnL-$1.81

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 74.4¢	$978.25	$1.1K	+$125.69	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 40.7¢	$995.38	$880.45	-$114.93	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 46.1¢	$894.13	$814.68	-$79.45	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.1¢	$587.44	$579.71	-$7.73
└ Over leg	Overavg 71.1¢	$306.69	$234.97	-$71.72
AN Anon455	Overavg 56.4¢	$473.6	$622.61	+$149.01	46% 200-233 (433)
nigiri99	Overavg 86¢	$340.51	$312.84	-$27.67	52% 235-217 (452)
TA takeormake	Overavg 60¢	$274.2	$276.49	+$2.29	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
US User7429	Overavg 78¢	$238.4	$256.74	+$18.34	28% 145-377 (522)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 45.2¢	$234.68	$150.65	-$84.03	31% 438-969 (1407)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 46.6¢	$246.51	$127.96	-$78.3	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$47.25	$73.5	+$26.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.6¢	$158.51	$54.46	-$104.55
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 51¢	$102	$108	+$6	36% 410-719 (1129)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 32¢	$79.64	$105.13	+$25.5	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 49¢	$100	$97.96	-$2.04	48% 74-80 (154)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 42.2¢	$78.67	$62.42	-$16.25	31% 441-967 (1408)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$66.28	$57.24	-$9.04	32% 444-952 (1396)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Overavg 54¢	$28.08	$43.68	+$15.6	39% 80-127 (207)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$59.4	$41.58	-$17.82	39% 233-367 (600)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Overavg 48¢	$23.08	$23.32	+$0.24	53% 305-275 (580)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$18.4	$18.2	-$0.2	40% 438-657 (1095)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 53.7¢	$70.15	$15.81	+$6.26	49% 973-998 (1971)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 22.7¢	$1.1K	$14.74	+$221.96	55% 843-701 (1544)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 67.5¢	$12.99	$13.93	+$0.93	55% 729-596 (1325)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 58¢	$16.76	$10.44	+$2.92	49% 786-829 (1615)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$14.4	$9.45	-$4.95	38% 99-159 (258)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 54¢	$2.38	$3.5	+$1.12	47% 1320-1474 (2794)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$978.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$125.69

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$995.38

Value

$880.45

PnL

-$114.93

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$894.13

Value

$814.68

PnL

-$79.45

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Under$587.4446.1¢-$7.73

Over$306.6971.1¢-$71.72

Anon455

Over

Invested

$473.6

Value

$622.61

PnL

+$149.01

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$340.51

Value

$312.84

PnL

-$27.67

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$274.2

Value

$276.49

PnL

+$2.29

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

User7429

Over

Invested

$238.4

Value

$256.74

PnL

+$18.34

Record

28%

145-377 (522)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$234.68

Value

$150.65

PnL

-$84.03

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$246.51

Value

$127.96

PnL

-$78.3

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Both legs:

Over$47.2554¢+$26.25

Under$158.5146.6¢-$104.55

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$102

Value

$108

PnL

+$6

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$79.64

Value

$105.13

PnL

+$25.5

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$100

Value

$97.96

PnL

-$2.04

Record

48%

74-80 (154)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.67

Value

$62.42

PnL

-$16.25

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.28

Value

$57.24

PnL

-$9.04

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

NatoAlfista<$100

Over

Invested

$28.08

Value

$43.68

PnL

+$15.6

Record

39%

80-127 (207)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.4

Value

$41.58

PnL

-$17.82

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Over

Invested

$23.08

Value

$23.32

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.4

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$70.15

Value

$15.81

PnL

+$6.26

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$1,138.58

Value

$14.74

PnL

+$221.96

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$12.99

Value

$13.93

PnL

+$0.93

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$16.76

Value

$10.44

PnL

+$2.92

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.4

Value

$9.45

PnL

-$4.95

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$2.38

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$1.12

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 22 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.