Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 216.5

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 78¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over78¢Under22¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$127.71

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 78¢

+20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over78%

Under22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,460

Combined PnL+$208.49

Under7 traders

Total Value$777.15

Total Shares2,930

Combined PnL-$336.21

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 61.5¢	$598.48	$798.46	+$199.98	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 67.9¢	$645.12	$734.77	+$89.65	55% 843-701 (1544)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 28.3¢	$310.54	$353.69	+$43.15	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$140.54	$188.69	+$48.15
└ Under leg	Underavg 28.3¢	$170	$165	-$5
fxwd12345	Overavg 82¢	$500	$347.56	-$152.44	78% 18-5 (23)
AN Anon455	Overavg 53.5¢	$276.27	$284.25	+$7.99	46% 200-233 (433)
RN1CTR	Underavg 27.1¢	$306.03	$248.38	-$57.65	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 56.4¢	$166.95	$223.37	+$56.42	36% 410-719 (1129)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45.2¢	$268.55	$198.85	-$69.7	31% 441-967 (1408)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$129.36	$164.1	+$34.74	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$77.81	$87.17	+$9.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 26.5¢	$51.55	$76.92	+$25.37
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 45.4¢	$266.5	$132.16	-$134.34	32% 444-952 (1396)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 47¢	$198.84	$124.8	-$74.04	31% 438-969 (1407)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 55¢	$48.4	$53.24	+$4.84	45% 304-377 (681)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$54.36	$49.92	-$4.44	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 21.1¢	$17.08	$21.06	+$3.98	49% 786-829 (1615)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 62¢	$21.75	$19.76	+$3.01	49% 973-998 (1971)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 61.5¢	$6.15	$5.4	-$0.75	55% 729-596 (1325)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$2	$1.98	-$0.02	40% 438-657 (1095)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 92¢	$1.84	$1.64	-$0.2	52% 235-217 (452)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$598.48

Value

$798.46

PnL

+$199.98

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$645.12

Value

$734.77

PnL

+$89.65

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$310.54

Value

$353.69

PnL

+$43.15

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Over$140.5454¢+$48.15

Under$17028.3¢-$5

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$347.56

PnL

-$152.44

Record

78%

18-5 (23)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$276.27

Value

$284.25

PnL

+$7.99

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$306.03

Value

$248.38

PnL

-$57.65

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$166.95

Value

$223.37

PnL

+$56.42

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$268.55

Value

$198.85

PnL

-$69.7

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$129.36

Value

$164.1

PnL

+$34.74

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Both legs:

Over$77.8154¢+$9.37

Under$51.5526.5¢+$25.37

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$266.5

Value

$132.16

PnL

-$134.34

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$198.84

Value

$124.8

PnL

-$74.04

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$48.4

Value

$53.24

PnL

+$4.84

Record

45%

304-377 (681)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.36

Value

$49.92

PnL

-$4.44

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.08

Value

$21.06

PnL

+$3.98

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$21.75

Value

$19.76

PnL

+$3.01

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$6.15

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.75

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$1.84

Value

$1.64

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.