Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 212.5

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (53%) · Over at 94¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over94¢Under6¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$34.98

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 93.5¢

+10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,753

Combined PnL+$60.77

Under7 traders

Total Value$375.63

Total Shares2,058

Combined PnL-$25.78

Over — 53%Under — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 90¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$81.31	52% 235-217 (452)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 80.8¢	$754.65	$872.92	+$118.27	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 85.2¢	$950.72	$861.82	-$88.91	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Over leg	Overavg 85.2¢	$507.04	$458.05	-$49
└ Under leg	Underavg 25.3¢	$443.68	$403.77	-$39.91
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 75.7¢	$246.43	$235.46	-$10.98	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 68¢	$148.24	$177.67	+$29.43	53% 305-275 (580)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 15.5¢	$448.9	$145.31	+$94.61	55% 843-701 (1544)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 23¢	$154.38	$87.26	-$67.12	31% 441-967 (1408)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 36.7¢	$132.56	$70.37	-$62.19	31% 444-971 (1415)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$35.34	$48.21	+$32.37	49% 786-829 (1615)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 90¢	$45.9	$45.39	-$0.51	38% 99-159 (258)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 64¢	$40.18	$42.37	+$2.18	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 70.9¢	$32.26	$21.49	+$2.93	55% 729-596 (1325)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$41.59	$20.77	-$20.82	39% 233-367 (600)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 64¢	$15.78	$16.52	+$0.74	36% 410-719 (1129)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$5.36	$3.17	-$2.19	32% 444-952 (1396)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$5.98	$0.54	-$0.44	49% 973-998 (1971)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$2,491.86

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$81.31

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$754.65

Value

$872.92

PnL

+$118.27

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$950.72

Value

$861.82

PnL

-$88.91

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Over$507.0485.2¢-$49

Under$443.6825.3¢-$39.91

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$246.43

Value

$235.46

PnL

-$10.98

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$148.24

Value

$177.67

PnL

+$29.43

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$448.9

Value

$145.31

PnL

+$94.61

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$154.38

Value

$87.26

PnL

-$67.12

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$132.56

Value

$70.37

PnL

-$62.19

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.34

Value

$48.21

PnL

+$32.37

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$45.9

Value

$45.39

PnL

-$0.51

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$40.18

Value

$42.37

PnL

+$2.18

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$32.26

Value

$21.49

PnL

+$2.93

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.59

Value

$20.77

PnL

-$20.82

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$15.78

Value

$16.52

PnL

+$0.74

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.36

Value

$3.17

PnL

-$2.19

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.98

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.44

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.