Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 210.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 94¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over94¢Under6¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$37.23

Smart Money Entry

83.8¢ → 93.5¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,317

Combined PnL+$100.05

Under6 traders

Total Value$184.25

Total Shares1,420

Combined PnL-$62.82

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 73¢	$365	$454.5	+$89.5	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 88¢	$298.59	$317.01	+$18.42	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
nigiri99	Overavg 95.9¢	$231.16	$216.66	-$14.5	52% 235-217 (452)
RN1	Overavg 88¢	$193.36	$199.7	+$6.34	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 22.6¢	$200	$119.53	-$80.47	55% 843-701 (1544)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$8.88	$22.42	+$13.54	13% 29-188 (217)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 12.9¢	$20.14	$20.98	+$0.84	49% 786-829 (1615)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$7.64	$10.31	+$2.67	36% 410-719 (1129)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 12.1¢	$8.47	$9.45	+$0.98	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 88¢	$8.81	$9.35	+$0.54	49% 973-998 (1971)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 94¢	$12.56	$6.19	-$0.25	38% 99-159 (258)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 19.2¢	$1.93	$1.55	-$0.38	55% 729-596 (1325)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$365

Value

$454.5

PnL

+$89.5

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$298.59

Value

$317.01

PnL

+$18.42

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$231.16

Value

$216.66

PnL

-$14.5

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

RN1

Over

Invested

$193.36

Value

$199.7

PnL

+$6.34

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$119.53

PnL

-$80.47

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.88

Value

$22.42

PnL

+$13.54

Record

13%

29-188 (217)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.14

Value

$20.98

PnL

+$0.84

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.64

Value

$10.31

PnL

+$2.67

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.47

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$0.98

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$8.81

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$0.54

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$12.56

Value

$6.19

PnL

-$0.25

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.93

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.38

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.