Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 208.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over96¢Under4¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$347.56

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 95.7¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over96%

Under4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,084

Combined PnL+$283.7

Under7 traders

Total Value$103.22

Total Shares1,274

Combined PnL+$63.87

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 85.7¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$264.6	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
RollAwayTheDew	Overavg 96.1¢	$239.97	$220.94	-$19.04	13% 37-246 (283)
RN1	Overavg 87¢	$113.33	$123.63	+$10.3	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
FE ferdinand2	Overavg 84.8¢	$106.15	$120.56	+$14.4	49% 973-998 (1971)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 81.7¢	$86.13	$99.57	+$13.44	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$10.04	$28.36	+$18.32	13% 29-188 (217)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$19.24	$20.68	+$1.44	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$5.9	$16.67	+$10.77	56% 73-57 (130)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$20.22	$14.92	+$9.7	52% 235-217 (452)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 11.9¢	$978.44	$10.82	+$30.38	55% 843-701 (1544)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 7.7¢	$18.42	$8.87	-$6.44	49% 786-829 (1615)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 27.1¢	$3.21	$2.9	-$0.31	55% 729-596 (1325)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,126.07

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$264.6

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

RollAwayTheDew

Over

Invested

$239.97

Value

$220.94

PnL

-$19.04

Record

13%

37-246 (283)

RN1

Over

Invested

$113.33

Value

$123.63

PnL

+$10.3

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

ferdinand2

Over

Invested

$106.15

Value

$120.56

PnL

+$14.4

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$86.13

Value

$99.57

PnL

+$13.44

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.04

Value

$28.36

PnL

+$18.32

Record

13%

29-188 (217)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.24

Value

$20.68

PnL

+$1.44

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.9

Value

$16.67

PnL

+$10.77

Record

56%

73-57 (130)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.22

Value

$14.92

PnL

+$9.7

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$978.44

Value

$10.82

PnL

+$30.38

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.42

Value

$8.87

PnL

-$6.44

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.21

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.31

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.8%

95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.