Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 204.5

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$30.82

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 99.5¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,038

Combined PnL-$22.1

Under9 traders

Total Value$109.69

Total Shares1,452

Combined PnL-$8.72

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 91.8¢	$623.42	$581.35	-$42.07	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 85¢	$594.1	$416.25	+$20.15	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 10.7¢	$83.31	$40.21	-$34.82	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 8.5¢	$18.1	$31.35	+$13.25	49% 786-829 (1615)
RN1<$100	Overavg 95¢	$29.45	$27.82	-$1.63	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$8.91	$14.85	+$5.94	13% 29-188 (217)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 85¢	$11.27	$12.69	+$1.41	49% 973-998 (1971)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$8	$9.1	+$1.1	55% 843-701 (1544)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$1.66	$8.3	+$6.64	52% 235-217 (452)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 5.1¢	$2.65	$2.6	-$0.05	36% 410-719 (1129)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 5.5¢	$2.26	$2.05	-$0.2	38% 99-159 (258)
HY hydra1248<$100	Overavg 91.8¢	$0.97	$1.01	+$0.03	78% 108-30 (138)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 10.6¢	$1.59	$0.97	-$0.62	55% 729-596 (1325)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$0.2	$0.25	+$0.05	21% 63-235 (298)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$623.42

Value

$581.35

PnL

-$42.07

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$594.1

Value

$416.25

PnL

+$20.15

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.31

Value

$40.21

PnL

-$34.82

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.1

Value

$31.35

PnL

+$13.25

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$29.45

Value

$27.82

PnL

-$1.63

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.91

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$5.94

Record

13%

29-188 (217)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$11.27

Value

$12.69

PnL

+$1.41

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$1.1

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.66

Value

$8.3

PnL

+$6.64

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.2

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

hydra1248<$100

Over

Invested

$0.97

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0.03

Record

78%

108-30 (138)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.59

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.62

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

21%

63-235 (298)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.