Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 202.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$56.7

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 99.5¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,919

Combined PnL+$56.6

Under5 traders

Total Value$32.49

Total Shares519

Combined PnL+$0.1

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 95¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$17.58	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
RN1	Overavg 89.4¢	$261.5	$279.27	+$17.77	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 91¢	$182	$183	+$1	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 96.1¢	$52.9	$54.78	+$1.88	49% 973-998 (1971)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 91.4¢	$1.1K	$51.18	+$48.53	55% 843-701 (1544)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 8.5¢	$159.59	$17.19	+$0.59	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$11.28	$11.28	-$0	13% 29-188 (217)
nigiri99	Overavg 96¢	$220.56	$10.56	+$5	52% 235-217 (452)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 6.1¢	$2.99	$2.57	-$0.42	49% 786-829 (1615)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 4.2¢	$1.32	$1.24	-$0.08	38% 99-159 (258)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$0.21	$0.21	-$0	36% 410-719 (1129)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,344.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$17.58

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

RN1

Over

Invested

$261.5

Value

$279.27

PnL

+$17.77

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$182

Value

$183

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$52.9

Value

$54.78

PnL

+$1.88

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,050.7

Value

$51.18

PnL

+$48.53

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$159.59

Value

$17.19

PnL

+$0.59

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.28

Value

$11.28

PnL

-$0

Record

13%

29-188 (217)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$220.56

Value

$10.56

PnL

+$5

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.99

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$0.42

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.08

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.