Spread: Thunder (-8.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (42%) · Trail Blazers at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Thunder5¢Trail Blazers95¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 42%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$65

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 95.5¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder5%

Trail Blazers96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,158

Combined PnL+$84.35

Thunder7 traders

Total Value$228.95

Total Shares1,439

Combined PnL-$149.35

Trail Blazers — 42%Thunder — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (9 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 76¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$282.48	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 90¢	$500.35	$311.05	-$161.42	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 74¢	$172.02	$170.86	-$1.16	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
nigiri99	Trail Blazersavg 81¢	$172.48	$140.58	-$31.9	52% 235-217 (452)
AN Anon455CTR	Thunderavg 26¢	$155.94	$131.95	-$23.99	46% 200-233 (433)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Thunderavg 20.9¢	$325.82	$50.66	-$86.16	55% 843-701 (1544)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 20¢	$51.72	$20.36	+$1.04	49% 786-829 (1615)
38 38791873984189<$100	Trail Blazersavg 78¢	$23.75	$20.09	-$3.65	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Thunderavg 26¢	$52	$12	-$40	53% 305-275 (580)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Thunderavg 22¢	$9.52	$11.25	+$1.73	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thunderavg 19.3¢	$3.28	$1.62	-$1.66	49% 973-998 (1971)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Thunderavg 28¢	$1.42	$1.12	-$0.3	55% 729-596 (1325)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,224.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$282.48

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$500.35

Value

$311.05

PnL

-$161.42

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$172.02

Value

$170.86

PnL

-$1.16

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

nigiri99

Trail Blazers

Invested

$172.48

Value

$140.58

PnL

-$31.9

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

Anon455CTR

Thunder

Invested

$155.94

Value

$131.95

PnL

-$23.99

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Thunder

Invested

$325.82

Value

$50.66

PnL

-$86.16

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$51.72

Value

$20.36

PnL

+$1.04

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

38791873984189<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$23.75

Value

$20.09

PnL

-$3.65

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$52

Value

$12

PnL

-$40

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

suntoriCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$9.52

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$1.73

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$3.28

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$1.66

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$0.3

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (9 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.