Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (75%) · Trail Blazers at 94¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Thunder7¢Trail Blazers93¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 75%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$166.22

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 93.5¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder7%

Trail Blazers94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,574

Combined PnL+$291.29

Thunder2 traders

Total Value$187.61

Total Shares2,886

Combined PnL-$457.5

Trail Blazers — 75%Thunder — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 81¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$79.83	54% 930-784 (1714)
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 77.4¢	$1.1K	$724.13	-$0.89	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 78.3¢	$613.95	$681.98	+$68.03	50% 3375-3365 (6740)
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 68.1¢	$390.4	$330.64	+$110.76	57% 4253-3271 (7524)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 78¢	$291.32	$325.13	+$33.81	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Thunderavg 22.4¢	$639.66	$185.25	-$454.41	53% 356-319 (675)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 80¢	$43.34	$16.09	-$0.25	47% 847-942 (1789)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thunderavg 15¢	$5.45	$2.36	-$3.09	50% 1068-1081 (2149)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,079.55

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$79.83

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,068.36

Value

$724.13

PnL

-$0.89

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$613.95

Value

$681.98

PnL

+$68.03

Record

50%

3375-3365 (6740)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$390.4

Value

$330.64

PnL

+$110.76

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$291.32

Value

$325.13

PnL

+$33.81

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Thunder

Invested

$639.66

Value

$185.25

PnL

-$454.41

Record

53%

356-319 (675)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$43.34

Value

$16.09

PnL

-$0.25

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$5.45

Value

$2.36

PnL

-$3.09

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.