Spread: Thunder (-5.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (63%) · Trail Blazers at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Thunder11¢Trail Blazers89¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 63%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$52.17

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 89.5¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder11%

Trail Blazers90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,509

Combined PnL+$169.38

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$195.88

Total Shares1,047

Combined PnL-$117.21

Trail Blazers — 63%Thunder — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (7 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 79¢	$1.1K	$975.71	+$41.61	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 80.2¢	$1.6K	$597.9	+$4.22	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 65.4¢	$445.72	$569.47	+$123.75	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
nigiri99CTR	Thunderavg 28.5¢	$265.43	$153.62	-$111.82	52% 235-217 (452)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Thunderavg 42.8¢	$35.38	$27.72	-$7.66	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 27¢	$13.24	$14.54	+$2.27	49% 786-829 (1615)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Trail Blazersavg 64¢	$7.11	$6.33	-$0.78	47% 350-393 (743)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Trail Blazersavg 56¢	$3.1	$3.68	+$0.58	52% 1914-1760 (3674)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,134.1

Value

$975.71

PnL

+$41.61

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,592.68

Value

$597.9

PnL

+$4.22

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$445.72

Value

$569.47

PnL

+$123.75

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

nigiri99CTR

Thunder

Invested

$265.43

Value

$153.62

PnL

-$111.82

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$35.38

Value

$27.72

PnL

-$7.66

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$13.24

Value

$14.54

PnL

+$2.27

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

SnakeBall<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$7.11

Value

$6.33

PnL

-$0.78

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$0.58

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (7 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.