Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (46%) · Trail Blazers at 78¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Thunder23¢Trail Blazers77¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 46%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$344.23

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 77.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder23%

Trail Blazers78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,641

Combined PnL+$371.43

Thunder7 traders

Total Value$241.17

Total Shares1,200

Combined PnL-$27.2

Trail Blazers — 46%Thunder — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 82.4¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$25.77	54% 930-784 (1714)
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 67.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$269.69	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Thunderavg 32¢	$629.85	$596.52	-$33.33	47% 219-247 (466)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 61¢	$309.85	$416.52	+$106.67
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 32¢	$320	$180	-$140
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 58.1¢	$313.02	$428.04	+$115.03	57% 4253-3271 (7524)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Thunderavg 40.8¢	$385.8	$255.64	-$130.16	50% 3375-3365 (6740)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 89¢	$177.92	$163.93	-$13.99
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 40.8¢	$207.88	$91.72	-$116.16
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Thunderavg 20¢	$200	$205	+$5	53% 356-319 (675)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Trail Blazersavg 66¢	$19.14	$23.06	+$3.91	48% 334-359 (693)
PA pauleta23<$100	Trail Blazersavg 66¢	$19.14	$23.06	+$3.91	33% 257-512 (769)
nigiri99<$100	Trail Blazersavg 61.8¢	$14.21	$18.86	+$4.65	51% 267-256 (523)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 27.2¢	$16.86	$11.16	-$5.7	47% 847-942 (1789)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Thunderavg 36¢	$19.27	$9.64	-$9.64	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Thunderavg 41¢	$21.61	$9.49	-$12.12	47% 296-333 (629)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Thunderavg 39.3¢	$6.54	$2.99	-$3.55	52% 1960-1815 (3775)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thunderavg 12¢	$1.02	$1.74	+$0.72	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Thunderavg 48¢	$3.06	$1.15	-$1.91	54% 789-676 (1465)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,178.65

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$25.77

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,429.14

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$269.69

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

Anon455ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$629.85

Value

$596.52

PnL

-$33.33

Record

47%

219-247 (466)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$309.8561¢+$106.67

Thunder$32032¢-$140

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$313.02

Value

$428.04

PnL

+$115.03

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$385.8

Value

$255.64

PnL

-$130.16

Record

50%

3375-3365 (6740)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$177.9289¢-$13.99

Thunder$207.8840.8¢-$116.16

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Thunder

Invested

$200

Value

$205

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

356-319 (675)

seeeeeeb<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$19.14

Value

$23.06

PnL

+$3.91

Record

48%

334-359 (693)

pauleta23<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$19.14

Value

$23.06

PnL

+$3.91

Record

33%

257-512 (769)

nigiri99<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$14.21

Value

$18.86

PnL

+$4.65

Record

51%

267-256 (523)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$16.86

Value

$11.16

PnL

-$5.7

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$19.27

Value

$9.64

PnL

-$9.64

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$21.61

Value

$9.49

PnL

-$12.12

Record

47%

296-333 (629)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$6.54

Value

$2.99

PnL

-$3.55

Record

52%

1960-1815 (3775)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$0.72

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$3.06

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$1.91

Record

54%

789-676 (1465)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.