Spread: Thunder (-3.5)

6 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (35%) · Trail Blazers at 72¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Thunder28¢Trail Blazers72¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 35%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$150.29

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 72¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 17 top traders (35%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder28%

Trail Blazers72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,071

Combined PnL+$357.94

Thunder11 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,670

Combined PnL-$207.65

Trail Blazers — 35%Thunder — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

47% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (14 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 71.1¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	+$26.07	55% 843-701 (1544)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Trail Blazersavg 54.5¢	$677.13	$882.32	+$205.19	— 7-9 (16)
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 55.7¢	$1.0K	$872.84	+$102.95	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
nigiri99	Trail Blazersavg 74¢	$469.54	$472.88	+$20.89	52% 235-217 (452)
VeryLucky888	Trail Blazersavg 59¢	$355.53	$337.45	-$18.08	52% 597-541 (1138)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Thunderavg 17.6¢	$185	$278.25	+$93.25	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
38 38791873984189CTR	Thunderavg 36.4¢	$234.09	$223.89	+$19.8	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Thunderavg 44.8¢	$141.07	$127.59	-$13.48	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
PA Pan9XCTR	Thunderavg 40.9¢	$125.23	$122.4	-$2.83	49% 786-829 (1615)
AN Anon455	Trail Blazersavg 49¢	$93.2	$114.12	+$20.92	46% 200-233 (433)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Thunderavg 39.5¢	$324.77	$90.52	-$234.25	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Thunderavg 41¢	$76.5	$82.1	+$5.6	47% 350-393 (743)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Thunderavg 44¢	$150	$73.3	-$76.7	16% 58-313 (371)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Thunderavg 45.9¢	$28.54	$24.86	-$3.68	47% 279-315 (594)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thunderavg 16¢	$13.13	$8.41	+$4.27	49% 973-998 (1971)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 40¢	$4	$3.85	-$0.15	32% 444-952 (1396)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Thunderavg 35¢	$2	$2.51	+$0.51	47% 1320-1474 (2794)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,655.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$26.07

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Trail Blazers

Invested

$677.13

Value

$882.32

PnL

+$205.19

Record

—

7-9 (16)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,027.13

Value

$872.84

PnL

+$102.95

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

nigiri99

Trail Blazers

Invested

$469.54

Value

$472.88

PnL

+$20.89

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

VeryLucky888

Trail Blazers

Invested

$355.53

Value

$337.45

PnL

-$18.08

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

FlaznorpCTR

Thunder

Invested

$185

Value

$278.25

PnL

+$93.25

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

38791873984189CTR

Thunder

Invested

$234.09

Value

$223.89

PnL

+$19.8

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Thunder

Invested

$141.07

Value

$127.59

PnL

-$13.48

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Pan9XCTR

Thunder

Invested

$125.23

Value

$122.4

PnL

-$2.83

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Anon455

Trail Blazers

Invested

$93.2

Value

$114.12

PnL

+$20.92

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

6512395314597884CTR

Thunder

Invested

$324.77

Value

$90.52

PnL

-$234.25

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$76.5

Value

$82.1

PnL

+$5.6

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Thunder

Invested

$150

Value

$73.3

PnL

-$76.7

Record

16%

58-313 (371)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$28.54

Value

$24.86

PnL

-$3.68

Record

47%

279-315 (594)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$13.13

Value

$8.41

PnL

+$4.27

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

suntoriCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.51

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 17 top traders (35%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

47% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (14 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.