Spread: Thunder (-20.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (60%) · Trail Blazers at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Trail Blazers
5
Trail Blazers 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$17.03
95.4¢ → 99.6¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTrail Blazers at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Trail Blazersavg 95.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$4.48 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 95.2¢ | $326.42 | $96.26 | +$3.84 | 55% 843-701 (1544) |
| └ Trail Blazers leg | Trail Blazersavg 95.2¢ | $57.12 | $56.97 | -$105.91 | |
| └ Thunder leg | Thunderavg 4.6¢ | $35.78 | $39.29 | +$109.75 | |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 95.5¢ | $11.46 | $11.4 | -$0.06 | 49% 973-998 (1971) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 94.8¢ | $23.75 | $10.37 | +$0.62 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Thunderavg 4.8¢ | $14.12 | $1.03 | -$13.09 | 57% 4155-3181 (7336) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Thunderavg 5.1¢ | $0.05 | $0.03 | -$0.02 | 49% 786-829 (1615) |
Invested
$1,068.46
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$4.48
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Invested
$326.42
Value
$96.26
PnL
+$3.84
Record
55%
843-701 (1544)
Both legs:
Invested
$11.46
Value
$11.4
PnL
-$0.06
Record
49%
973-998 (1971)
Invested
$23.75
Value
$10.37
PnL
+$0.62
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$14.12
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$13.09
Record
57%
4155-3181 (7336)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.02
Record
49%
786-829 (1615)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.