Spread: Thunder (-14.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (78%) · Trail Blazers at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Thunder<1¢Trail Blazers>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 78%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$59.24

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 99.1¢

+17% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder1%

Trail Blazers99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,544

Combined PnL+$68.58

Thunder2 traders

Total Value$28.16

Total Shares1,058

Combined PnL-$127.82

Trail Blazers — 78%Thunder — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 85¢	$627.49	$648.6	+$21.11	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 84.4¢	$458.23	$476	+$17.77	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 84¢	$168	$181	+$13	55% 843-701 (1544)
38 38791873984189<$100	Trail Blazersavg 87.9¢	$82.28	$91.39	+$9.11	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
AN Anon455<$100	Trail Blazersavg 82¢	$31.43	$34.69	+$3.26	46% 200-233 (433)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Thunderavg 14.7¢	$150.88	$25.61	-$125.27	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Trail Blazersavg 96¢	$8.46	$9.15	+$0.69	38% 99-159 (258)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 85¢	$51.55	$5.3	+$3.65	49% 786-829 (1615)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thunderavg 15¢	$5.1	$2.55	-$2.55	49% 973-998 (1971)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$627.49

Value

$648.6

PnL

+$21.11

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$458.23

Value

$476

PnL

+$17.77

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$168

Value

$181

PnL

+$13

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

38791873984189<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$82.28

Value

$91.39

PnL

+$9.11

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Anon455<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$31.43

Value

$34.69

PnL

+$3.26

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

FlaznorpCTR

Thunder

Invested

$150.88

Value

$25.61

PnL

-$125.27

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Forecastication2<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$8.46

Value

$9.15

PnL

+$0.69

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$51.55

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$3.65

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$5.1

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$2.55

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.