Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (50%) · Trail Blazers at 96¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Thunder4¢Trail Blazers96¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$70.78

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 96.1¢

+23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder4%

Trail Blazers96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,103

Combined PnL+$93.71

Thunder5 traders

Total Value$48.28

Total Shares401

Combined PnL-$22.94

Trail Blazers — 50%Thunder — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 80¢	$601.34	$613.77	+$12.43	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 75¢	$210.12	$269.61	+$59.49	55% 843-701 (1544)
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 75.7¢	$117.4	$144.93	+$27.53	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Trail Blazersavg 86.9¢	$38.23	$33	-$5.23	38% 99-159 (258)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 15.5¢	$51.41	$18.33	+$0.92	49% 786-829 (1615)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Thunderavg 16¢	$44.64	$18.14	-$26.51	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Thunderavg 13¢	$5.07	$9.75	+$4.68	13% 29-188 (217)
38 38791873984189<$100	Trail Blazersavg 80¢	$8	$7.5	-$0.5	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thunderavg 16¢	$3	$1.22	-$1.78	49% 973-998 (1971)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Thunderavg 22¢	$1.1	$0.85	-$0.25	46% 200-233 (433)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$601.34

Value

$613.77

PnL

+$12.43

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$210.12

Value

$269.61

PnL

+$59.49

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$117.4

Value

$144.93

PnL

+$27.53

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Forecastication2<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$38.23

Value

$33

PnL

-$5.23

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$51.41

Value

$18.33

PnL

+$0.92

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$44.64

Value

$18.14

PnL

-$26.51

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$5.07

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$4.68

Record

13%

29-188 (217)

38791873984189<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$1.78

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Anon455CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.25

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.