Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (68%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 33¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over68¢Under32¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$34.91

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 32.5¢

-43% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$881.38

Total Shares1,727

Combined PnL-$102.84

Over2 traders

Total Value$747.06

Total Shares1,324

Combined PnL+$67.93

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 55.3¢	$746.16	$681.51	-$64.64	53% 234-204 (438)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 43.6¢	$612.4	$678.85	+$66.45	56% 563-451 (1014)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 42.5¢	$224.66	$230.38	+$5.73	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.5¢	$138.82	$147.15	+$8.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.7¢	$85.84	$83.23	-$2.6
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 63.9¢	$214.15	$177.63	-$36.52	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 43.7¢	$104.68	$107.25	+$2.56	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.7¢	$63.36	$65.26	+$1.9
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.1¢	$41.32	$41.99	+$0.67
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 45¢	$66.73	$68.21	+$1.48	29% 332-810 (1142)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$23.92	$22.24	-$1.68	35% 280-514 (794)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$746.16

Value

$681.51

PnL

-$64.64

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$612.4

Value

$678.85

PnL

+$66.45

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$224.66

Value

$230.38

PnL

+$5.73

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

Both legs:

Over$138.8242.5¢+$8.33

Under$85.8456.7¢-$2.6

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$214.15

Value

$177.63

PnL

-$36.52

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$104.68

Value

$107.25

PnL

+$2.56

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

Both legs:

Over$63.3643.7¢+$1.9

Under$41.3254.1¢+$0.67

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$66.73

Value

$68.21

PnL

+$1.48

Record

29%

332-810 (1142)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.92

Value

$22.24

PnL

-$1.68

Record

35%

280-514 (794)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.