Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 42¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 11

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

-$895.12

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 41.5¢

-15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$17.0K

Total Shares36,650

Combined PnL-$914.95

Over4 traders

Total Value$284.82

Total Shares541

Combined PnL+$19.83

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 49¢	$17.4K	$16.5K	-$870.51	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 52.9¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$84.57	56% 563-451 (1014)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.9¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$204.66
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.9¢	$504.65	$384.56	-$120.09
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 52.3¢	$657.22	$667.84	+$10.62	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.3¢	$431.71	$482.72	+$51.02
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.6¢	$225.52	$185.12	-$40.4
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Overavg 52¢	$643.97	$555.39	+$11.3	53% 234-204 (438)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$425.47	$437.74	+$17.63
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$123.97	$117.65	-$6.32
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 47.6¢	$316.72	$292.6	-$24.12	29% 332-810 (1142)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 60.1¢	$270.23	$269.51	+$17	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
└ Over leg	Overavg 28.2¢	$70.16	$146.79	+$76.63
└ Under leg	Underavg 60.1¢	$179.98	$122.72	-$59.64
VE Venusian	Overavg 49¢	$133.44	$142.97	+$9.53	29% 322-803 (1125)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 49¢	$121.52	$131.44	+$9.92	29% 320-793 (1113)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 55.7¢	$108	$95.02	-$12.99	35% 280-514 (794)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$89.1	$82.17	-$6.93	29% 72-176 (248)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$20	$19.6	-$0.4	26% 131-365 (496)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 56¢	$5.83	$5.31	-$0.52	54% 461-396 (857)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 42¢	$4.2	$5.1	+$0.9	59% 3145-2227 (5372)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$17,419.14

Value

$16.5K

PnL

-$870.51

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,531.51

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$84.57

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

Both legs:

Over$1,026.8652.9¢+$204.66

Under$504.6547.9¢-$120.09

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$657.22

Value

$667.84

PnL

+$10.62

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

Both legs:

Over$431.7152.3¢+$51.02

Under$225.5250.6¢-$40.4

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$643.97

Value

$555.39

PnL

+$11.3

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

Both legs:

Over$425.4752¢+$17.63

Under$123.9749¢-$6.32

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$316.72

Value

$292.6

PnL

-$24.12

Record

29%

332-810 (1142)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$270.23

Value

$269.51

PnL

+$17

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

Both legs:

Over$70.1628.2¢+$76.63

Under$179.9860.1¢-$59.64

Venusian

Over

Invested

$133.44

Value

$142.97

PnL

+$9.53

Record

29%

322-803 (1125)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$121.52

Value

$131.44

PnL

+$9.92

Record

29%

320-793 (1113)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$108

Value

$95.02

PnL

-$12.99

Record

35%

280-514 (794)

biying88888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$89.1

Value

$82.17

PnL

-$6.93

Record

29%

72-176 (248)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$19.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

26%

131-365 (496)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$5.83

Value

$5.31

PnL

-$0.52

Record

54%

461-396 (857)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$4.2

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

59%

3145-2227 (5372)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.