Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 45¢ · $695 held · ended Nov 11

Over55¢Under45¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$695.26

Combined PnL

-$117.18

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 45¢

-16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$592.42

Total Shares1,330

Combined PnL-$122.31

Over4 traders

Total Value$102.85

Total Shares347

Combined PnL+$5.13

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 60¢	$280.01	$205.34	-$74.67	48% 231-247 (478)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 52.4¢	$233.05	$200.23	-$32.82	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 44¢	$109.86	$109.86	+$0	55% 541-436 (977)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$85.31	$71.09	-$14.22	53% 228-199 (427)
RN1<$100	Overavg 23¢	$52.93	$59.83	+$6.9	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 48¢	$21.05	$24.12	+$3.07	28% 317-800 (1117)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 32.2¢	$21.2	$17.11	-$4.09	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$6.49	$5.89	-$0.6	54% 445-377 (822)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 37¢	$2.54	$1.78	-$0.75	35% 279-508 (787)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$280.01

Value

$205.34

PnL

-$74.67

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$233.05

Value

$200.23

PnL

-$32.82

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$109.86

Value

$109.86

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$85.31

Value

$71.09

PnL

-$14.22

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$52.93

Value

$59.83

PnL

+$6.9

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$21.05

Value

$24.12

PnL

+$3.07

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$21.2

Value

$17.11

PnL

-$4.09

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.49

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$0.6

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$2.54

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.75

Record

35%

279-508 (787)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.