Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (82%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 221.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 19¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$22.82

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 18.5¢

-61% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$995.42

Total Shares2,158

Combined PnL-$38.73

Over1 trader

Total Value$286.38

Total Shares530

Combined PnL+$15.91

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 44.6¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$188.74	55% 541-436 (977)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.1¢	$432.7	$690.08	+$257.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.6¢	$761.93	$315.81	-$446.11
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 49¢	$392	$368	-$24	28% 69-175 (244)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 51¢	$270.47	$286.38	+$15.91	53% 228-199 (427)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 48.7¢	$282.15	$266.56	-$15.59	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
RN1CTR	Underavg 48¢	$243.84	$233.68	-$10.16	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 43.8¢	$254.65	$175.3	-$79.35	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.5¢	$65.98	$99.86	+$33.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.8¢	$188.66	$75.44	-$113.22
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 42¢	$113.89	$124.37	+$10.48	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$2.26	$2.81	+$0.55	54% 445-377 (822)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,194.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$188.74

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

Both legs:

Over$432.751.1¢+$257.37

Under$761.9344.6¢-$446.11

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$392

Value

$368

PnL

-$24

Record

28%

69-175 (244)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$270.47

Value

$286.38

PnL

+$15.91

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$282.15

Value

$266.56

PnL

-$15.59

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$243.84

Value

$233.68

PnL

-$10.16

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$254.65

Value

$175.3

PnL

-$79.35

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

Both legs:

Over$65.9854.5¢+$33.88

Under$188.6643.8¢-$113.22

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$113.89

Value

$124.37

PnL

+$10.48

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.81

PnL

+$0.55

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.