Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (67%) · Thunder at 62¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers38¢Thunder62¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$40.18

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 62¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers38%

Thunder62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder6 traders

Total Value$832.71

Total Shares1,202

Combined PnL+$49.8

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$296.01

Total Shares796

Combined PnL-$9.63

Thunder — 67%Trail Blazers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (7 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 62.7¢	$500.17	$531.03	+$30.86	55% 541-436 (977)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Thunderavg 59¢	$475.54	$483.83	+$8.29	53% 228-199 (427)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 59¢	$261.96	$277.5	+$15.54
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 38.8¢	$213.58	$206.33	-$7.25
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Thunderavg 54.4¢	$405.29	$396.49	+$52.01	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 54.4¢	$177.18	$202.02	+$33.98
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 34.5¢	$176.45	$194.48	+$18.02
MA MadridTimeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 37¢	$133.45	$137.16	+$3.71	29% 322-773 (1095)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Thunderavg 51¢	$95.76	$108.9	+$13.14	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
HO HomeRunHazard	Thunderavg 58.6¢	$108.68	$107.71	-$0.97	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Thunderavg 62¢	$110.08	$104.87	-$5.21	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 62¢	$66.34	$69.02	+$2.67
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 43.3¢	$43.74	$35.86	-$7.89
RN1CTR	Trail Blazersavg 41.5¢	$105.46	$90.32	-$15.14	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 37¢	$66.73	$68.53	+$1.8	28% 317-800 (1117)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Thunderavg 57¢	$53.01	$57.66	+$4.65	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
TA takeormake<$100	Thunderavg 57¢	$18.82	$21.29	+$2.47	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
PA Pan9X<$100	Thunderavg 60.1¢	$43.85	$6.13	-$0.35	49% 498-518 (1016)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$500.17

Value

$531.03

PnL

+$30.86

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$475.54

Value

$483.83

PnL

+$8.29

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

Both legs:

Thunder$261.9659¢+$15.54

Trail Blazers$213.5838.8¢-$7.25

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$405.29

Value

$396.49

PnL

+$52.01

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

Both legs:

Thunder$177.1854.4¢+$33.98

Trail Blazers$176.4534.5¢+$18.02

MadridTimeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$133.45

Value

$137.16

PnL

+$3.71

Record

29%

322-773 (1095)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Thunder

Invested

$95.76

Value

$108.9

PnL

+$13.14

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

HomeRunHazard

Thunder

Invested

$108.68

Value

$107.71

PnL

-$0.97

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$110.08

Value

$104.87

PnL

-$5.21

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Both legs:

Thunder$66.3462¢+$2.67

Trail Blazers$43.7443.3¢-$7.89

RN1CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$105.46

Value

$90.32

PnL

-$15.14

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

VenusianCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$66.73

Value

$68.53

PnL

+$1.8

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

Flaznorp<$100

Thunder

Invested

$53.01

Value

$57.66

PnL

+$4.65

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

takeormake<$100

Thunder

Invested

$18.82

Value

$21.29

PnL

+$2.47

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

Pan9X<$100

Thunder

Invested

$43.85

Value

$6.13

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (7 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.