Spread: Trail Blazers (-24.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (67%) · Thunder at 100¢ · $458 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
6
Thunder 67%
$458.27
-$9.31
97.9¢ → 99.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 6512395314597884 | Thunderavg 99¢ | $207.9 | $200.05 | -$7.86 | 51% 3187-3102 (6289) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Thunderavg 96¢ | $140.16 | $138.99 | -$1.17 | 55% 541-436 (977) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Thunderavg 98.2¢ | $70.4 | $70.93 | +$0.54 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Thunderavg 98.3¢ | $39.32 | $39.58 | +$0.26 | 49% 498-518 (1016) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 4¢ | $5.84 | $7.01 | +$1.17 | 58% 3865-2855 (6720) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 1.3¢ | $3.97 | $1.71 | -$2.26 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
Invested
$207.9
Value
$200.05
PnL
-$7.86
Record
51%
3187-3102 (6289)
Invested
$140.16
Value
$138.99
PnL
-$1.17
Record
55%
541-436 (977)
Invested
$70.4
Value
$70.93
PnL
+$0.54
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
Invested
$39.32
Value
$39.58
PnL
+$0.26
Record
49%
498-518 (1016)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$5.84
Value
$7.01
PnL
+$1.17
Record
58%
3865-2855 (6720)
Invested
$3.97
Value
$1.71
PnL
-$2.26
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.