Spread: Trail Blazers (-20.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (60%) · Thunder at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
5
Thunder 60%
$2.2K
$36.21
95.3¢ → 91¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Thunderavg 93.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$38.45 | 56% 563-451 (1014) |
65 6512395314597884 | Thunderavg 99¢ | $555.33 | $553.33 | -$2 | 51% 3200-3120 (6320) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Trail Blazersavg 5.5¢ | $85.4 | $162.2 | +$76.8 | 50% 1640-1620 (3260) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Thunderavg 99.1¢ | $47.57 | $47.52 | -$0.05 | 48% 512-544 (1056) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 2.9¢ | $0.15 | $0.05 | -$0.09 | 57% 3877-2879 (6756) |
Invested
$1,495.86
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$38.45
Record
56%
563-451 (1014)
Invested
$555.33
Value
$553.33
PnL
-$2
Record
51%
3200-3120 (6320)
Invested
$85.4
Value
$162.2
PnL
+$76.8
Record
50%
1640-1620 (3260)
Invested
$47.57
Value
$47.52
PnL
-$0.05
Record
48%
512-544 (1056)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.09
Record
57%
3877-2879 (6756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.