Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (100%) · Thunder at 93¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
6
Thunder 100%
$5.3K
$36.38
92.7¢ → 93.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 93%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Thunderavg 89.7¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$112.22 | 56% 563-451 (1014) |
65 6512395314597884 | Thunderavg 95.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$5.09 | 51% 3200-3120 (6320) |
FL Flaznorp | Thunderavg 93¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | -$64.87 | 50% 1640-1620 (3260) |
38 38791873984189 | Thunderavg 96¢ | $285.44 | $274.22 | -$11.22 | 48% 1056-1134 (2190) |
PA Pan9X | Thunderavg 96¢ | $256.42 | $256.32 | -$0.1 | 48% 512-544 (1056) |
 RN1 | Thunderavg 95.9¢ | $246.55 | $241.82 | -$4.74 | 57% 3877-2879 (6756) |
Invested
$2,089
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$112.22
Record
56%
563-451 (1014)
Invested
$1,293.12
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$5.09
Record
51%
3200-3120 (6320)
Invested
$1,184.52
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$64.87
Record
50%
1640-1620 (3260)
Invested
$285.44
Value
$274.22
PnL
-$11.22
Record
48%
1056-1134 (2190)
Invested
$256.42
Value
$256.32
PnL
-$0.1
Record
48%
512-544 (1056)
RN1Invested
$246.55
Value
$241.82
PnL
-$4.74
Record
57%
3877-2879 (6756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.