Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (60%) · Trail Blazers at 67¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder33¢Trail Blazers67¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$17.49

Smart Money Entry

69.7¢ → 67¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder33%

Trail Blazers67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,834

Combined PnL+$28.13

Thunder2 traders

Total Value$308.46

Total Shares1,064

Combined PnL-$10.65

Trail Blazers — 60%Thunder — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 67.4¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$60.07	55% 541-436 (977)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Thunderavg 29.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$94.58	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 29.4¢	$741.84	$820.5	+$78.66
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 65.1¢	$431.59	$447.5	+$15.91
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 67.5¢	$826.52	$744.74	+$50.6	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 67.5¢	$528.97	$528.62	+$3.31
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 25.6¢	$170.28	$216.13	+$47.29
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 72.6¢	$737.59	$726.46	-$11.14	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Thunderavg 30.9¢	$315.04	$290.13	-$24.91	53% 228-199 (427)
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 78¢	$249.6	$228.8	-$20.8	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 22.5¢	$48.36	$18.33	+$14.27	49% 498-518 (1016)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,830.22

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$60.07

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1,173.43

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$94.58

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

Both legs:

Thunder$741.8429.4¢+$78.66

Trail Blazers$431.5965.1¢+$15.91

38791873984189ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$826.52

Value

$744.74

PnL

+$50.6

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$528.9767.5¢+$3.31

Thunder$170.2825.6¢+$47.29

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$737.59

Value

$726.46

PnL

-$11.14

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Thunder

Invested

$315.04

Value

$290.13

PnL

-$24.91

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$249.6

Value

$228.8

PnL

-$20.8

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$48.36

Value

$18.33

PnL

+$14.27

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.