Spread: Thunder (-5.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (43%) · Trail Blazers at 62¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder38¢Trail Blazers62¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.7K

Combined PnL

$548.76

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 62¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder38%

Trail Blazers62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares21,036

Combined PnL+$577.07

Thunder4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,903

Combined PnL-$28.31

Trail Blazers — 43%Thunder — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Trail Blazersavg 60.5¢	$10.6K	$11.2K	+$531.82	70% 1660-708 (2368)
FO forecastication4	Trail Blazersavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$29.7	13% 28-194 (222)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 62.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$15.56	55% 541-436 (977)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 59.7¢	$1.5K	$924.57	+$24.08	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 59.7¢	$509.47	$524.57	+$27.8
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 38.9¢	$403.72	$400.01	-$3.71
PU purplegattoCTR	Thunderavg 39¢	$909.87	$898.21	-$11.66	69% 2576-1173 (3749)
38 38791873984189CTR	Thunderavg 38¢	$171.38	$155.6	-$15.78	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Thunderavg 37.1¢	$116.35	$102.07	+$4.94	49% 498-518 (1016)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 37.1¢	$66.96	$71.33	+$4.36
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 60.4¢	$30.68	$30.75	+$0.58
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Thunderavg 37.8¢	$83.71	$85.31	+$1.6	48% 231-247 (478)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 37.8¢	$43.55	$45.48	+$1.93
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 61¢	$40.16	$39.83	-$0.33
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Thunderavg 36¢	$32.04	$32.93	+$0.89	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 40.3¢	$12.1	$10.35	-$1.75	58% 3133-2226 (5359)

SunlineTicker

Trail Blazers

Invested

$10,622.41

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$531.82

Record

70%

1660-708 (2368)

forecastication4

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,168.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$29.7

Record

13%

28-194 (222)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,162.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$15.56

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,510.49

Value

$924.57

PnL

+$24.08

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$509.4759.7¢+$27.8

Thunder$403.7238.9¢-$3.71

purplegattoCTR

Thunder

Invested

$909.87

Value

$898.21

PnL

-$11.66

Record

69%

2576-1173 (3749)

38791873984189CTR

Thunder

Invested

$171.38

Value

$155.6

PnL

-$15.78

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Pan9XARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$116.35

Value

$102.07

PnL

+$4.94

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

Both legs:

Thunder$66.9637.1¢+$4.36

Trail Blazers$30.6860.4¢+$0.58

SnakeBallARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$83.71

Value

$85.31

PnL

+$1.6

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

Both legs:

Thunder$43.5537.8¢+$1.93

Trail Blazers$40.1661¢-$0.33

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$32.04

Value

$32.93

PnL

+$0.89

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$12.1

Value

$10.35

PnL

-$1.75

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.