Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (71%) · Trail Blazers at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder13¢Trail Blazers87¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 71%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$68.1

Smart Money Entry

91.2¢ → 87.5¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder13%

Trail Blazers88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,710

Combined PnL+$7.2

Thunder2 traders

Total Value$267.79

Total Shares2,400

Combined PnL+$60.9

Trail Blazers — 71%Thunder — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 92¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$7.38	55% 541-436 (977)
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 90.5¢	$579.69	$572.99	-$6.69	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 91.6¢	$402.18	$403.86	+$1.68	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Thunderavg 8.1¢	$167.58	$228.92	+$61.34	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 85¢	$126.83	$127.63	+$5.3	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 10.7¢	$39.31	$38.86	-$0.45	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 91¢	$10.52	$10.05	-$0.46	49% 498-518 (1016)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,357.35

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$7.38

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$579.69

Value

$572.99

PnL

-$6.69

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$402.18

Value

$403.86

PnL

+$1.68

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

FlaznorpCTR

Thunder

Invested

$167.58

Value

$228.92

PnL

+$61.34

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$126.83

Value

$127.63

PnL

+$5.3

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$39.31

Value

$38.86

PnL

-$0.45

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$10.52

Value

$10.05

PnL

-$0.46

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.