Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (29%) · Trail Blazers at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder21¢Trail Blazers79¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 29%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$30.69

Smart Money Entry

80.4¢ → 79.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder21%

Trail Blazers80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers2 traders

Total Value$933.54

Total Shares1,154

Combined PnL+$5.73

Thunder5 traders

Total Value$201.56

Total Shares1,247

Combined PnL-$36.42

Trail Blazers — 29%Thunder — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (6 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 80.5¢	$767.8	$758.54	-$9.27	55% 541-436 (977)
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 80¢	$160	$175	+$15	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Thunderavg 18¢	$101.45	$90.03	-$11.43	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Thunderavg 20.6¢	$92.73	$39.49	-$10.29	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 21¢	$37.59	$36.7	-$0.9	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Thunderavg 19.9¢	$40.35	$29.34	-$11.01	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Thunderavg 22¢	$8.8	$6	-$2.8	28% 317-800 (1117)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$767.8

Value

$758.54

PnL

-$9.27

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$160

Value

$175

PnL

+$15

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

FlaznorpCTR

Thunder

Invested

$101.45

Value

$90.03

PnL

-$11.43

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$92.73

Value

$39.49

PnL

-$10.29

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$37.59

Value

$36.7

PnL

-$0.9

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$40.35

Value

$29.34

PnL

-$11.01

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

VenusianCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$8.8

Value

PnL

-$2.8

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (6 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.