Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 229.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 41¢ · $601 held · ended Nov 14

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$601.22

Combined PnL

-$48.55

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 41¢

-18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$532.15

Total Shares1,196

Combined PnL-$66.6

Under2 traders

Total Value$69.06

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$18.04

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 49.8¢	$573.7	$512.47	-$61.23	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
RN1<$100	Underavg 41¢	$35.14	$47.57	+$12.43	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 41¢	$15.88	$21.49	+$5.62	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$22.85	$17.23	-$5.62	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$2.2	$2.45	+$0.25	55% 1350-1126 (2476)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$573.7

Value

$512.47

PnL

-$61.23

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$35.14

Value

$47.57

PnL

+$12.43

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$15.88

Value

$21.49

PnL

+$5.62

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.85

Value

$17.23

PnL

-$5.62

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.