Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (73%). 2 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 27¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$541.14

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 27¢

-50% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,135

Combined PnL+$300.19

Over2 traders

Total Value$997.72

Total Shares3,471

Combined PnL-$841.33

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 43¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$73.02	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$52.91
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$533.36	$553.46	+$20.1
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 58.5¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$249	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	Overavg 57¢	$1.7K	$810.98	-$869.34	63% 82-49 (131)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 34.4¢	$652.06	$186.74	+$28.02	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 39.5¢	$50.17	$97.92	+$47.75	51% 470-452 (922)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Underavg 45¢	$95.22	$94.37	-$0.85	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$47.61	$47.61	+$0
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$47.61	$46.76	-$0.85
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 49¢	$60.87	$63.35	+$2.48	37% 497-832 (1329)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 49¢	$26.67	$26.93	+$0.26	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 43¢	$10.23	$10.71	+$0.48	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 45¢	$7.81	$7.81	+$0	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 43¢	$4.3	$4.5	+$0.2	40% 614-914 (1528)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 47¢	$0.89	$0.91	+$0.02	51% 2368-2313 (4681)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,672.14

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$73.02

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

Both legs:

Under$1,138.7843¢+$52.91

Over$533.3653¢+$20.1

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,043.49

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$249

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Zzzz87CTR

Over

Invested

$1,680.32

Value

$810.98

PnL

-$869.34

Record

63%

82-49 (131)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$652.06

Value

$186.74

PnL

+$28.02

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$50.17

Value

$97.92

PnL

+$47.75

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

suntoriARB<$100

Under

Invested

$95.22

Value

$94.37

PnL

-$0.85

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Both legs:

Under$47.6145¢+$0

Over$47.6156¢-$0.85

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$60.87

Value

$63.35

PnL

+$2.48

Record

37%

497-832 (1329)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$26.67

Value

$26.93

PnL

+$0.26

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$10.23

Value

$10.71

PnL

+$0.48

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$7.81

Value

$7.81

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.2

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.0%

27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$244.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

344.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.