Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 211.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 45¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$302.45

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 44.5¢

-21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares10,198

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares10,257

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 43¢	$3.8K	$4.9K	+$1.1K	51% 2392-2332 (4724)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Underavg 57¢	$5.7K	$4.7K	$-1.1K	26% 40-114 (154)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 45.7¢	$513.95	$758.63	+$244.68	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
RN1	Overavg 43¢	$107.99	$135.95	+$27.96	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 41.7¢	$100.88	$121.02	+$20.15	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 38.5¢	$3.85	$5	+$1.15	49% 1915-2022 (3937)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$1.3	$2.85	+$1.55	36% 925-1612 (2537)
VP VPenguin<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.75	+$0.6	39% 13-20 (33)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 75.2¢	$4.76	$2.72	-$2.04	45% 2387-2862 (5249)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 39¢	$0.64	$0.7	+$0.07	37% 872-1456 (2328)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$3,792.34

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

51%

2392-2332 (4724)

luckycat888888CTR

Under

Invested

$5,700

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

26%

40-114 (154)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$513.95

Value

$758.63

PnL

+$244.68

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

RN1

Over

Invested

$107.99

Value

$135.95

PnL

+$27.96

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$100.88

Value

$121.02

PnL

+$20.15

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.85

Value

PnL

+$1.15

Record

49%

1915-2022 (3937)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.3

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$1.55

Record

36%

925-1612 (2537)

VPenguin<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.6

Record

39%

13-20 (33)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$4.76

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$2.04

Record

45%

2387-2862 (5249)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.7

PnL

+$0.07

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.