Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 207.5

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 87¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over87¢Under13¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 14%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$96.02

Research grade

AvoidOver at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over87%

Under14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,947

Combined PnL+$466.82

Under6 traders

Total Value$819.21

Total Shares3,221

Combined PnL-$370.8

Over — 14%Under — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 63.7¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$466.82	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 32.3¢	$618.67	$306.16	-$312.51	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 44¢	$354.21	$289.81	-$64.4	51% 2392-2332 (4724)
RN1CTR	Underavg 42¢	$112.37	$117.64	+$5.27	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$96.03	$96.03	-$0	41% 151-215 (366)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$7.38	$7.92	+$0.54	51% 487-460 (947)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.65	+$0.3	37% 872-1456 (2328)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,875.85

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$466.82

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$618.67

Value

$306.16

PnL

-$312.51

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$354.21

Value

$289.81

PnL

-$64.4

Record

51%

2392-2332 (4724)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$112.37

Value

$117.64

PnL

+$5.27

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$96.03

Value

$96.03

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

151-215 (366)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.38

Value

$7.92

PnL

+$0.54

Record

51%

487-460 (947)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.3

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.