Spread: Clippers (-5.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (45%) · Thunder at 74¢ · $43K held · ended Nov 14

Clippers27¢Thunder73¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 45%

Total Value

$42.8K

Combined PnL

$5.4K

Smart Money Entry

55.2¢ → 73.5¢

+33% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Clippers27%

Thunder74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder5 traders

Total Value$26.8K

Total Shares37,301

Combined PnL+$6.2K

Clippers6 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares37,390

Combined PnL-$806.54

Thunder — 45%Clippers — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrClippers 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VP VPenguin	Thunderavg 55¢	$18.3K	$24.4K	+$6.1K	39% 13-20 (33)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Clippersavg 44.9¢	$15.9K	$15.6K	-$332.07	51% 2392-2332 (4724)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 56.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$19.32	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Thunderavg 56¢	$420.94	$506.15	+$85.21	51% 487-460 (947)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Clippersavg 42.8¢	$709.05	$256.82	-$452.23	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
SE sentrio	Thunderavg 56¢	$141.92	$141.92	-$0	43% 933-1261 (2194)
RN1CTR<$100	Clippersavg 42¢	$42.78	$44.82	+$2.04	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Clippersavg 44¢	$58.74	$35.38	-$23.36	41% 151-215 (366)
HY hydra1248<$100	Thunderavg 83.7¢	$12.83	$8.59	-$4.24	75% 169-55 (224)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Clippersavg 23.5¢	$3.89	$4.39	+$0.5	45% 2387-2862 (5249)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Clippersavg 44¢	$2.2	$0.78	-$1.43	49% 1915-2022 (3937)

VPenguin

Thunder

Invested

$18,273.52

Value

$24.4K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

39%

13-20 (33)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Clippers

Invested

$15,944.75

Value

$15.6K

PnL

-$332.07

Record

51%

2392-2332 (4724)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$1,775.19

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$19.32

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Thunder

Invested

$420.94

Value

$506.15

PnL

+$85.21

Record

51%

487-460 (947)

FlaznorpCTR

Clippers

Invested

$709.05

Value

$256.82

PnL

-$452.23

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

sentrio

Thunder

Invested

$141.92

Value

$141.92

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

933-1261 (2194)

RN1CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$42.78

Value

$44.82

PnL

+$2.04

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$58.74

Value

$35.38

PnL

-$23.36

Record

41%

151-215 (366)

hydra1248<$100

Thunder

Invested

$12.83

Value

$8.59

PnL

-$4.24

Record

75%

169-55 (224)

suntoriCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$3.89

Value

$4.39

PnL

+$0.5

Record

45%

2387-2862 (5249)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2.2

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$1.43

Record

49%

1915-2022 (3937)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrClippers 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.