Spread: Thunder (-2.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (38%) · Thunder at 67¢ · $857 held · ended Nov 14

Thunder67¢Clippers33¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 38%

Total Value

$857.25

Combined PnL

-$12.5

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 66.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder67%

Clippers34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$511.39

Total Shares811

Combined PnL+$1.41

Clippers5 traders

Total Value$345.6

Total Shares974

Combined PnL-$13.91

Thunder — 38%Clippers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThunder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrClippers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Thunderavg 65¢	$298.94	$289.74	-$9.2	62% 1024-638 (1662)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 60¢	$201.6	$211.68	+$10.08	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
RN1CTR	Clippersavg 38.7¢	$190.65	$167.37	-$23.28	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Clippersavg 35¢	$147.6	$156.03	+$8.43	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Clippersavg 35¢	$13.86	$14.65	+$0.79	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
nigiri99<$100	Thunderavg 63¢	$9.45	$9.98	+$0.53	51% 499-470 (969)
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100	Clippersavg 37¢	$5.55	$5.55	+$0	41% 596-843 (1439)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Clippersavg 34.2¢	$1.85	$2	+$0.15	36% 883-1569 (2452)

darkumbreon88

Thunder

Invested

$298.94

Value

$289.74

PnL

-$9.2

Record

62%

1024-638 (1662)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$201.6

Value

$211.68

PnL

+$10.08

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

RN1CTR

Clippers

Invested

$190.65

Value

$167.37

PnL

-$23.28

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

FlaznorpCTR

Clippers

Invested

$147.6

Value

$156.03

PnL

+$8.43

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$13.86

Value

$14.65

PnL

+$0.79

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

nigiri99<$100

Thunder

Invested

$9.45

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.53

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

BreakTheBankCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$5.55

Value

$5.55

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

596-843 (1439)

LimousinCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$1.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

36%

883-1569 (2452)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThunder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrClippers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.