Spread: Raptors (-4.5)

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (11%) · Knicks at 84¢ · $432 held · ended Nov 15

Raptors16¢Knicks84¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 11%

Total Value

$432.43

Combined PnL

$62.88

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors16%

Knicks84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors8 traders

Total Value$309.43

Total Shares902

Combined PnL+$61.24

Knicks1 trader

Total Value$122.99

Total Shares164

Combined PnL+$1.64

Raptors — 89%Knicks — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2CTR	Raptorsavg 24¢	$78.96	$125.02	+$46.06	44% 372-469 (841)
FO forecastication4	Knicksavg 74¢	$121.35	$122.99	+$1.64	37% 224-378 (602)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 27¢	$60.14	$84.64	+$24.5	39% 1528-2435 (3963)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 26¢	$43.89	$64.22	+$20.33	38% 1525-2471 (3996)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 23¢	$6.79	$11.22	+$4.43	50% 2334-2317 (4651)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 38¢	$23.05	$9.71	-$13.35	48% 4971-5335 (10306)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 39¢	$19.5	$8	-$11.5	53% 7675-6754 (14429)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 38¢	$11.32	$4.77	-$6.55	50% 4157-4147 (8304)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 39¢	$4.55	$1.87	-$2.68	55% 2159-1794 (3953)

Forecastication2CTR

Raptors

Invested

$78.96

Value

$125.02

PnL

+$46.06

Record

44%

372-469 (841)

forecastication4

Knicks

Invested

$121.35

Value

$122.99

PnL

+$1.64

Record

37%

224-378 (602)

VenusianCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$60.14

Value

$84.64

PnL

+$24.5

Record

39%

1528-2435 (3963)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$43.89

Value

$64.22

PnL

+$20.33

Record

38%

1525-2471 (3996)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$6.79

Value

$11.22

PnL

+$4.43

Record

50%

2334-2317 (4651)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$23.05

Value

$9.71

PnL

-$13.35

Record

48%

4971-5335 (10306)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$19.5

Value

PnL

-$11.5

Record

53%

7675-6754 (14429)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$11.32

Value

$4.77

PnL

-$6.55

Record

50%

4157-4147 (8304)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$4.55

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$2.68

Record

55%

2159-1794 (3953)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.