Spread: Knicks (-13.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (44%) · Raptors at 63¢ · $963 held · ended Nov 15

Knicks37¢Raptors63¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 44%

Total Value

$963.15

Combined PnL

-$75.93

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 63¢

-13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks37%

Raptors63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$708.33

Total Shares1,020

Combined PnL-$70.55

Knicks5 traders

Total Value$254.82

Total Shares924

Combined PnL-$5.38

Raptors — 44%Knicks — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKnicks 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Raptorsavg 69.6¢	$452.38	$409.49	-$42.89	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
38 38791873984189	Raptorsavg 77¢	$291.53	$251.87	-$26.53	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
RN1CTR	Knicksavg 30.5¢	$167.85	$174.42	+$6.57	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Knicksavg 23¢	$62.16	$54.05	-$8.11	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
PA Pan9X<$100	Raptorsavg 77¢	$36.34	$34.24	-$2.1	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Knicksavg 23¢	$16.22	$14.1	-$2.12	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Raptorsavg 79.7¢	$11.76	$12.74	+$0.97	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Knicksavg 22.9¢	$13.77	$12.02	-$1.75	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Knicksavg 17¢	$0.2	$0.22	+$0.02	50% 4146-4137 (8283)

Flaznorp

Raptors

Invested

$452.38

Value

$409.49

PnL

-$42.89

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

38791873984189

Raptors

Invested

$291.53

Value

$251.87

PnL

-$26.53

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

RN1CTR

Knicks

Invested

$167.85

Value

$174.42

PnL

+$6.57

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$62.16

Value

$54.05

PnL

-$8.11

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

Pan9X<$100

Raptors

Invested

$36.34

Value

$34.24

PnL

-$2.1

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

VenusianCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$16.22

Value

$14.1

PnL

-$2.12

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Raptors

Invested

$11.76

Value

$12.74

PnL

+$0.97

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$13.77

Value

$12.02

PnL

-$1.75

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKnicks 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.