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Under
RN1OverUnderUnderUnderUnderUnder
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 204.5
Resolved Over. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Under 83%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$173.7
Combined PnL
-$112.43
Smart Money Signal
Under
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Over100%
Under0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Over1 trader
Total Value$114.13
Total Shares114
Combined PnL+$24.6
Under5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares591
Combined PnL-$137.03
Over — 17%Under — 83%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $103.12 | $59.58 | -$43.55 | 54% 1316-1100 (2416) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 28¢ | $61.01 | — | -$61.01 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 70.7¢ | $42.12 | $59.58 | +$17.46 | |
RN1 | Overavg 67¢ | $89.52 | $114.13 | +$24.6 | 56% 5043-4004 (9047) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $59.4 | — | -$59.4 | 36% 879-1566 (2445) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 27.3¢ | $52.1 | — | -$52.1 | 50% 3526-3585 (7111) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 27¢ | $15.46 | — | -$15.46 | 37% 819-1385 (2204) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 21.7¢ | $5.14 | — | -$5.14 | 53% 1556-1404 (2960) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100 | Underavg 23.1¢ | $4.92 | — | -$4.92 | 51% 467-449 (916) |
0X
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100Invested
$103.12
Value
$59.58
PnL
-$43.55
Record
54%
1316-1100 (2416)
Both legs:
Under$61.0128¢-$61.01
Over$42.1270.7¢+$17.46
RN1Invested
$89.52
Value
$114.13
PnL
+$24.6
Record
56%
5043-4004 (9047)
LI
LimousinCTR<$100Invested
$59.4
Value
—
PnL
-$59.4
Record
36%
879-1566 (2445)
FL
FlaznorpCTR<$100Invested
$52.1
Value
—
PnL
-$52.1
Record
50%
3526-3585 (7111)
TO
topdogbigboiCTR<$100Invested
$15.46
Value
—
PnL
-$15.46
Record
37%
819-1385 (2204)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
$5.14
Value
—
PnL
-$5.14
Record
53%
1556-1404 (2960)
0X
0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100Invested
$4.92
Value
—
PnL
-$4.92
Record
51%
467-449 (916)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x0125f351...842654
Slug
nba-nyk-ind-2026-11-13-total-204pt5